Dark Hole at the End of the Tunnel

I spoke with a good friend the other day who is finishing up his PhD who was telling me how frustrated he is in academia and how he wants out. After he mentioned it I thought of all the people I know who finished their PhDs (or got a good way through) and have not gone on to academics (though it was their initial intention). I count eight ten right now (an eleventh hated his discipline very much upon finishing, but has since found his place), although that includes one where industry provides him as many opportunities for research as does the academy, with better funding prospects.

I don't know that many people. Why is the academy so bad at hanging on to good people?

Clinton Legacy?

A simple question: If Hillary looses her bid for the Democratic nomination, why/how has Bill Clinton, the most successful (beloved?) Democratic president since JFK or possibly Truman/FDR, not been able to get either of his two surrogates in the Whitehouse?

I think the answer has something to do with America's political mind and our idea of the presidency. At its core, the position is not reserved for a policy wonk, but a leader. Neither Gore nor HRC have the charisma of Clinton42 and that is really what America responds to. (This is totally why I stopped wanting to be President in second grade and learned that I really wanted to be Secretary of State or a Sr. Advisor.)

It's not just assimilation

This Pew Research study of religions in America is getting good exposure. Haaretz broke down some interesting stats here. Here are some things I took away:

1. Only 1.7% of America is Jewish (Comparable to Mormons)
2. < 0.3% is Jewish Orthodox. So there are at most ~900,000 (age 18+) of "us" in this great country. Pew's methodology states that they conducted random telephone interviews. I would guess that the "ultra-orthodox" a) have cell phones and not land lines b) are less inclined to answer surveys in general, and may be unable to do so because of language barriers.
3. 72% of Jews (18+) have no children. 82% of Conservative Jews have no children, the highest of any religious group (compare that to 46% of Jews making $100,000+, the highest for any religious group). Even if we consider that the 18-30 demographic is not as likely to have children, that still leaves 57.6% of Jews 30+ and 64% of Conservative Jews with no children. As a further piece of datum that I do not know what to do with, 81% of Jews have been in a committed relationship at some point in their life. How much overlap there is between the remaining 19% and the 18-30 age demographic is unclear.

Let's do a sad back-of-the-envelope calculation. Let's assume that 55% of Jews marry non-Jews and of the 45% of remaining Jews 58% of them have no children. Let's also guess that the avg # of children for those that do decide to have children is 2 (which is about right). In that case, every 100 Jewish adults produces 19 Jewish children! That is a total low ball figure, as ~50% of those that inter-marry still produce halachikally Jewish children, but there is a rather high chance that they will not affiliate as well.

19 for every hundred is not replacement, no where close.

Don't Touch that Political Dial

So you think Hillary is done? Out? Kaput?
I crunched the numbers. Taking all the remaining elections I assumed:
Clinton wins TX, OH & PA 60/40 and wins PR 100/0 (Puerto Rico is winner take all)
Obama wins the remaining states 55/45
In such a case Clinton leads in the coming contests 589/489. Adding that to the total delegates currently projected by the NYT (982/1095 HRC/BHO) Clinton is only down by 13. Since thats really only -7 (because any delegate lost from Obama is a pickup for Clinton) she would only need a handful of upsets to best Obama at the pledged delegate game.

Far from over.

Update: I just put in the delegates awarded from WI & HI along with even poll numbers in TX and a closing 10 point spread in OH. Assuming a 50/50 split in TX and 45/55 split in OH for HRC we get:
1559/1657 HRC/BHO
Even including PR that is a 98 delegate lead for Obama. It's looking bleaker for HRC.

That's Electability

I would be way more likely to vote for Hillary if she still looked like this:

One of my favorite lines in cinema is from Who Framed Roger Rabbit:

Eddie Valiant: You mean to tell me you coulda taken your hand outta that cuff at any time?
Roger Rabbit: Well, no, not any time. Only when it was funny.

I realized that you can formalize the statement thusly:

Let p=hand out of cuff, q= it was funny
Then: ◇p iff q

It is a very powerful formulation. Roger says by extension that if ㄱq → ㄱp. It is only because something is funny that renders it possible! Wise words from an animated rabbit.

Boyle is Serious About His Law

So I waged an epic battle against Boyle today. Guess what, I lost.

I put boiling water in my Thermos before shabbes last week, but did not have reason to make tea over the course of the weekend. There the insulated water sat until today, when I tried to pry the top open. Turn as the cap would, it came no closer to coming off. Heating and cooling were of no avail (particularly cooling which was only last ditch) as the thing is a Thermos for God sakes! Its entire purpose is to insulate! I did learn that the cap comes apart and I was able to poke a small hole in the cap with a heated nail and POP, the cap came right off.

As I struggled with the bloody cap for neigh a half hour (using rubber things and clamps to get a tight grip) I realized: P=VT. The volume is constant so P:V. As the contents of the Thermos cooled from say 100 degrees C to 30 degrees C the pressure decreased to 3/10 the original, creating a dang tight vacuum. Let that be a lesson to all those lazy Thermos users out there! Oh, and don't put the boiling hot contents of the Thermos in the freezer either just to test how well it works. It might be your last Thermos adventure for a while.

Boyle 10^big number : Zev 0

That's not entirely true

The NYT begins an article concerning special interests monies and the Obama campaign thusly:

After months of denouncing the influence of special-interest money in politics, Senator Barack Obama is nonetheless entering a critical phase of the presidential campaign benefiting from millions of dollars being spent outside campaign finance rules.

Ok, sounds like Obama is getting help from the very groups he said he would not. Except that the article goes on to say that, "Mr. Obama has repudiated a California group" and neglects to mention that campaigns are legally not allowed to have anything to do with 527's. Even if the Obama campaign wanted to it could not coordinate with the group to shut it down.

Why does the article start off condemning hypocrisy when it would be illegal to do anything else?

Not OK for Beis Yaakov

What could I possibly have been assigned to read for my Democratic Theory class that included a page with the following footnotes:

* A dildo
† Also a dildo
‡ Meaning cunnilingus

Hint: Yehuda might know.

A Very Good Grilled Cheese Sandwich

I made myself a grilled cheese yesterday that I was very happy with.

Whole wheat bread
Butter
Mozzarella Cheese
Curry powder
Black pepper

Curry makes everything good. Even shampoo. Ok, maybe not shampoo, but everything else.

They're not selling Air for cheap

Apple announced it's Macbook Air today. I knew it was going to be bad news when Jobs stated that it comes with 2GB of RAM standard. No portable mac has that (Apple is notorious for skimping on standard RAM). I am just upset because there have been rumors about this bad-bod for months now and I was set. In the end they shaved 0.25" and 2 pounds and jacked the price $750 over the Macbook ($1,800). Its area is even slightly bigger (only hundredths of an inch, mind you) than the Macbook. 2 lbs or $800? Guess it's not for me. Who is it for? Is is the same length and width of the Macbook and doesn't have enough power for a professional user. The fast paced, executive, on-the-go Mac-y? The corporate world doesn't use PCs. No doubt, it is a gorgeous machine, but I can only imagine that it will eventually merge with the Macbook line as prices drop for comparable hardware. Shucks.

Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others!

From Treehouse of Horror VII; Kang to crowd:

Abortions for all! [BOO]
Very well, Abortions for none! [BOO]
Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others! [YAY]

Rings particularly clear in light of this. I can't believe it actually works!

But Why?

Karl Rove wrote this scathing attack on Barak Obama in today's WSJ. My question is why? He is not a regular political pundit, and he has no personal affiliation with the Clintons (to my knowledge). As a venerable Republican strategist, I can only assume that he fears the challenge presented by Obama greater than that of Clinton. But if that were the case why write in the WSJ, why not the NYT or WaPo? Maybe to dissuade centrist Republicans who appear to be swayed by Obama, but would remain staunchly partisan were the contest to feature Clinton.

Very strange.

Boo NH

It is nice to live in a country where the outcome of presidential primaries is about as emotionally taxing as an important football game. I can't wait until Super Tuesday--I don't think my work schedule can take much more ballot watching.

Boo, Obama did not win. On the bright side Clinton was leading in the polls in NH until only this week and as late as last week she held a 6 point lead. IA and NH are, in some ways, very different states from the heavy hitters that are going to carry the race (FL, NY, CA). Winning both IA and NH may very well be a red heron herring. Furthermore, I think Obama suffers from being cast as the favorite--it is much easier to advocate for change, rhetorically, when you are perceived the underdog. A solid win in IA and a close loss in NH will invigorate supporters and not let the campaign lull while still demonstrating a much narrower gap than polls had been predicting for months (until last week national polls had Clinton up by 20% as opposed to 7.7% today).

That being said, Clinton probably has NY wrapped up, and I can imagine many voters in FL being wary of a new guy. It would have been nice to carry the momentum from NH, but, so it goes.

It's a Girl!!

Naomi Smadar Halper
Born 1:30 am January 3, 2008
Hadassah Mt. Scopus Hospital
Jerusalem, Israel

Election Results

I am very happy Obama won. Could be the first UofC president. I want Obama to win, if for nothing else, I like his speeches.

Of course the NYT is playing up the results as a trend (which is more self-fulfilling than anything else).

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a first-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change.The victory by Mr. Obama, 46, amounted to a startling setback for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, 60, of New York, who just months ago appeared to be the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. -NYT

Using words like "rolling" and "setback" are empty as they offer no additional analysis of what occurred. Of course it was a setback for Clinton, what else could it be?

It is also rather annoying (although NPR did a great job articulating the subtlety here) that everyone describes Clinton's finish as third place, failing to mention that she lost by 0.24% to Edwards. OK, she is the heavy hitter and technically 29.76 > 29.52, but not by much (744 to 737 out of ~2,500). Michelle Norris was very careful to explain that Clinton and Edwards were in a virtual tie for second, which is probably more statistically accurate.

Studies on Break

Things I learned in NY, even while on break, which is sort of not allowed, but only sort of:

1. Brooklyn is filled with Jews, even if they look trendy (although plenty do not, to be assured).
2. Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi!
3. Fairway has as much food as a regular supermarket, it is just crammed into the size of a peanut. Kind of like a superdense mart.
4. That, in the words of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, what really matters this time of year are the awesome sales boxing day generates.
5. If there is better (where better maximizes the function of yummie to cheap) restaurant in NY than Golan it exists somewhere between 27th and 28th on Lexington.
6. The movies will always be crowded erev Christmas in NY.
7. Australian women are no more attractive than American women.
8. Hot cross buns exist outside of Suzuki? Who knew?
9. MTA elevators were created for the lazy as well as subway passengers.
10. Although guests and fish start to smell after two days, O&M do a remarkable job of putting up with smelly Zev. For that I thank them very much.

False Prophets

I think financial reporting is worse than science journalism, which is saying something. As WSJ is not open for free consumption yet, I am stuck with the NYT, which appears to have an inability to actually communicate what is actually going on in the market, and when it does it uses technical terms that are never defined (such as repo rates, etc). Here, to my feeble financial mind, is another example.

Until the boom in subprime mortgages turned into a national nightmare this summer, the few people who tried to warn federal banking officials might as well have been talking to themselves.

Edward M. Gramlich, a Federal Reserve governor who died in September, warned nearly seven years ago that a fast-growing new breed of lenders was luring many people into risky mortgages they could not afford. -NYT

We discussed the same phenomenon in my class on China last night. After sovietologists failed to predict '89 they were excoriate for not seeing it coming. Now all experts on China swear that China is in transition to democracy so that when China transitions they can all say, "I told you N years ago China was going to transition!" If it is between stability and change, always predict change and one day you will sound like a prophet.

To my understanding Wall Street would have been terribly upset if the Fed had stuck its nose in the house market in 2000 (when Mr. Gramlich initially warned Greenspan of impending doom), and then in successive years when the housing sector was the strongest of the economy. How would it look if the Fed regulated away years of great prosperity? Furthermore, if the Fed chooses to panic, as the market did in August, it only leads to further volatility (I am sure that is a debated point among economists, however).

The point is, Donny, it is always easier to say I told you so. And also sounds pretty lame.

One Internat

1 Internat = the shortest amount of time it is possible to sit down at a computer = (gmail+webmail+facebook+nyt+C) where C=some constant amout of time you waste no matter what.

This morning C was due to XKCD. I got my internat down to 15 mins. Not bad, but I can do better.

Congratulations

Congrats to Will Baude on his selection to clerk for Chief Justice John Roberts for the 2008 term. Roberts chose well.