Thursday, July 13, 2006

M.E. Regional Flare-Up

Just one thought about this current mess:

Every conventional military in the world sucks at a-symmetric warfare (Israel less so than most). As this conflict become more symmetric, the conflict becomes more "favorable" for the Israelis. The inverse and the transpose also hold. Watch for Hezbollah to do more ducking-and-running, oscillating the power of their aggression.

Under these assumptions I cannot understand what Hezbollah stands to gain by firing Katusas on Israel...

1 comment:

MF said...

The problem, admittedly clearer now then when you originally wrote this post, is that the mean green machine in southern lebanon is fighting on prepared ground, and doesn't need to route the Israeli army to "win," just stymie it.

If they manage less a ratio of better then say, 2 terrorists for every 1 IDF soldier, a ratio I think they are currently under, then the recruitment and funding uptic from the Israeli defense setting fire to the Muslim world will more than balance their losses.

The best way for a smaller animal to kill a larger one is to harry it. Keep attacking and attacking, let the big animal lash out, let it swing its big heavy claws and gnash its great teeth, even if it takes some of your back with you. Just make sure it sweats, and eventually it will tire, and eventually it will fall.