Election Results

I am very happy Obama won. Could be the first UofC president. I want Obama to win, if for nothing else, I like his speeches.

Of course the NYT is playing up the results as a trend (which is more self-fulfilling than anything else).

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a first-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change.The victory by Mr. Obama, 46, amounted to a startling setback for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, 60, of New York, who just months ago appeared to be the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. -NYT

Using words like "rolling" and "setback" are empty as they offer no additional analysis of what occurred. Of course it was a setback for Clinton, what else could it be?

It is also rather annoying (although NPR did a great job articulating the subtlety here) that everyone describes Clinton's finish as third place, failing to mention that she lost by 0.24% to Edwards. OK, she is the heavy hitter and technically 29.76 > 29.52, but not by much (744 to 737 out of ~2,500). Michelle Norris was very careful to explain that Clinton and Edwards were in a virtual tie for second, which is probably more statistically accurate.

Studies on Break

Things I learned in NY, even while on break, which is sort of not allowed, but only sort of:

1. Brooklyn is filled with Jews, even if they look trendy (although plenty do not, to be assured).
2. Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi!
3. Fairway has as much food as a regular supermarket, it is just crammed into the size of a peanut. Kind of like a superdense mart.
4. That, in the words of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, what really matters this time of year are the awesome sales boxing day generates.
5. If there is better (where better maximizes the function of yummie to cheap) restaurant in NY than Golan it exists somewhere between 27th and 28th on Lexington.
6. The movies will always be crowded erev Christmas in NY.
7. Australian women are no more attractive than American women.
8. Hot cross buns exist outside of Suzuki? Who knew?
9. MTA elevators were created for the lazy as well as subway passengers.
10. Although guests and fish start to smell after two days, O&M do a remarkable job of putting up with smelly Zev. For that I thank them very much.

False Prophets

I think financial reporting is worse than science journalism, which is saying something. As WSJ is not open for free consumption yet, I am stuck with the NYT, which appears to have an inability to actually communicate what is actually going on in the market, and when it does it uses technical terms that are never defined (such as repo rates, etc). Here, to my feeble financial mind, is another example.

Until the boom in subprime mortgages turned into a national nightmare this summer, the few people who tried to warn federal banking officials might as well have been talking to themselves.

Edward M. Gramlich, a Federal Reserve governor who died in September, warned nearly seven years ago that a fast-growing new breed of lenders was luring many people into risky mortgages they could not afford. -NYT

We discussed the same phenomenon in my class on China last night. After sovietologists failed to predict '89 they were excoriate for not seeing it coming. Now all experts on China swear that China is in transition to democracy so that when China transitions they can all say, "I told you N years ago China was going to transition!" If it is between stability and change, always predict change and one day you will sound like a prophet.

To my understanding Wall Street would have been terribly upset if the Fed had stuck its nose in the house market in 2000 (when Mr. Gramlich initially warned Greenspan of impending doom), and then in successive years when the housing sector was the strongest of the economy. How would it look if the Fed regulated away years of great prosperity? Furthermore, if the Fed chooses to panic, as the market did in August, it only leads to further volatility (I am sure that is a debated point among economists, however).

The point is, Donny, it is always easier to say I told you so. And also sounds pretty lame.

One Internat

1 Internat = the shortest amount of time it is possible to sit down at a computer = (gmail+webmail+facebook+nyt+C) where C=some constant amout of time you waste no matter what.

This morning C was due to XKCD. I got my internat down to 15 mins. Not bad, but I can do better.

Congratulations

Congrats to Will Baude on his selection to clerk for Chief Justice John Roberts for the 2008 term. Roberts chose well.

Addendum: Rant

A frum guy, Yaakov Roth, was chosen to clerk for Justice Scalia as well as Moshe Spinowitz, whom I believe was at Gush when I was there in 2000 on college break (or break from college, I am not sure which). Am I in a bubble or do frum men do things like this and not frum women? (No gauntlet intended, but if you want to prove me wrong, I would be rather pleased.) The ratio is about 3:2 men to women among the clerks, so I gather. I think we need more stay-at-home dads.

Unpacking the Coens

I just saw No Country for Old Men on Saturday night. A continual project of mine is attempting to decipher what makes the Coens such great artists of film. This movie clarifies matters insofar as it cleaves the story from the direction. The story, apparently scene for scene, is not property of the Coens but rather McCarthy. When the unforeseen inevitability occurs it is does not come from the mind of the Coens. I found the story rather reminiscent of Fargo, as the story is not the plot, and the characters actions represent something wholly other than they understand.

What the Coens, then, understand is how to tell that story. What tone, meter, saturation to give a monologue. What a sunset looks like. When a character is best portrayed as his reflection in a Technicolor television set. How the story moves and how we move within that story. They understand, better than any living director, how to tell as story. Spielberg and others make stories, the Coens tell them.

I think it will be a long time before I get Jones's pronunciation of "maisure" out of my head. For the best.

Sailing to Byzantium

That is no country for old men. The young
In one another's arms, birds in the trees -
Those dying generations - at their song,
The salmon-falls, the mackerel-crowded seas,
Fish, flesh, or fowl, commend all summer long
Whatever is begotten, born, and dies.
Caught in that sensual music all neglect
Monuments of unageing intellect.

An aged man is but a paltry thing,
A tattered coat upon a stick, unless
Soul clap its hands and sing, and louder sing
For every tatter in its mortal dress,
Nor is there singing school but studying
Monuments of its own magnificence;
And therefore I have sailed the seas and come
To the holy city of Byzantium.

O sages standing in God's holy fire
As in the gold mosaic of a wall,
Come from the holy fire, perne in a gyre,
And be the singing-masters of my soul.
Consume my heart away; sick with desire
And fastened to a dying animal
It knows not what it is; and gather me
Into the artifice of eternity.

Once out of nature I shall never take
My bodily form from any natural thing,
But such a form as Grecian goldsmiths make
Of hammered gold and gold enamelling
To keep a drowsy Emperor awake;
Or set upon a golden bough to sing
To lords and ladies of Byzantium
Of what is past, or passing, or to come.

-- William Butler Yeats

About Face

I am too tired an busy to address this issue with the care it deserves. I do have a few questions which I believe need engagement in the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate pronouncemed with

high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (DOE and the NIC have moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.) Assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007 (NIE p. 9)

1. Why did Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, report just last month that Iran was operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons?
2. What new intelligence has been obtained to reach these conclusions?
3. Why have others not been privy to this information (such as the Whitehouse, Israel, EU, etc)
4. Why do Israeli officials still maintain their short-term time table, now with a four year gap with the most pessimistic U.S. NIE of 2013?
5. Why has Iran remained so defiant if they are, "vulnerable to influence"? Why have they remained in non-compliance with the IAEA and the UN? It is seems a rather risky rouge to employ for a rational actor.

I am sure there will be many who rejoice at this pronouncement. I am too, but it seems too simple just to make an about face on something this big.

Remains of the Day

I just sat down to eat the very last of the Thanksgiving pie and I wanted to share some with Oren. Here you go.



Mmmm, mmmm.

Happy Thanksgiving

At minyan this morning the question was raised, do you say Tachanun on Thanksgiving? One of the ironic ex-New Yorkers replied, "Yeah, but without kavonah."
So, ma nishtana?

At the gym this morning Fox News advised how to avoid over eating. Their #1 suggestion was: Don't wear elastic waist pants to the table.
Why does America need to be reminded not to wear elastic waist pants to the dinner table? We are Homer Simpson.

Funny v. Unfunny

I don't know how the Hollywood studios hope to exact concessions from the writers guild. Essentially, you are pitting yourself against America's funniest and most articulate rhetors. The longer this thing drags out the more sympathy the writers will draw. At least in the mean while we get to read funny writers being bitter. The no pants line is for you Oren.

12:15 p.m. A man in a suit passes by. He yells, “I hope you all get fired!”

Look — this is weird for us, too, you know. Writers are not a naturally combative species. We’re used to sitting in front of our computers and crying. Fresh air is like poison to us. If protocol didn’t dictate otherwise, it’s very likely we would never wear pants. But we’ve given up our salaries and our jobs — easily the only jobs we’re qualified for — to stand outside and yell at people. So, for the sake of decency, could you please not yell back?

1 p.m. My shift is over. I stumble off, still walking in vague ovals, dazed at the possibilities that this early freedom holds. Should I go to a museum? Maybe get a much-needed haircut? Who knew there were so many hours in the afternoon? Who knew there was so much sunlight during the day? Overwhelmed by my options, I go home and fall asleep. -NYT

In other news, I learned a cool word this morning: otiose (pronounced O-She-Oz, rhymes with Cheerios) meaning indolent or without purpose. Can pants be otiose?

Proximity and Religion

I have this theory: you're only as frum as you are close to NYC modified by your proximity to a large US city. So a typical conversation I had last year was:

Random Ortho: Where do you live?
Zev: Philadelphia.
RO: Oh, I have a cousin in Philadelphia. Do you know the butcher there? He is really good...

This year it's:

RO: Where do you live?
Zev: Ann Arbor.
RO: Oh.
or alternatively:
RO: Oh, that's near Detroit, isn't it?

My speculation is that there exists a presumption (which in itself makes it true, in a sort of way) that you need community to be frum. The largest community in the US is NY, hence one can be most frum in NY. Inversely, if you do not live in NY you are less frum.

That is if you fail at the above game. If the interlocutor can locate another frum reference point in your community you may still participate in the larger doxus-community. The presence of this reference allows others to ascertain the religious environment of a particular place and thereby ascribe an in/out distinction or level of commitment to you, the non-New Yorker.

Judaism, unlike Protestant Christianity, is really predicated on community in a ritual sense. What is interesting is people probe at this (by talking about their nephew Chaim Straussman who lives in Philly) without even knowing that that is what they are doing.

Quote of the day:

"This is an extremely difficult decision," [Sen. Charles E.] Schumer said in a statement, adding that Mukasey "is not my ideal choice." -AP

You have got to chuckle a bit at Schumer though, having personally recommended Mukasey to Pres. Bush. I in the words of Sen. Leahey, "I don’t think I have ever seen him in a pickle,” What do you expect from Chuck, he has never had to deal with pressure from his own base before.

That being said, I do support Mukasey. After the first day of testimony from Mukasey the Times was quite sanguine about his prospects for confirmation calling them something like a "slam dunk." Someone asked the Lede, I believe, how they know Mukasey is really so moderate. The Times responded by saying that he has an 18 year record on the bench indicate his positions. At the back-end of this, I just find it sophomoric that 18 years of rulings can be trounced by one equivocal statement on water-boarding.

Power of Procrastination

Theorem: P_p=t_e/t_a
The Power of Procrastination is proportional to expected time to complete some arbitrary chore over the actual time it takes to complete that chore. The P_p of the Daily Show would then be a very small number (<1) while the P_p of one's doctoral thesis would be a very large number.

Ex. Sally normally washes the dishes once every other week. Given that she has a paper to write for tomorrow the paper's P_p is 336p. How long does it actually take Sally to wash the dishes?
A. 1 hour.

I am still working on a theory for P_p wrt time remaining. It is clear, a priori, that P_p increases as the due point approaches, but I am not exactly sure what that relationship is yet. Seemingly, t_e is a constant so P_p must vary with t_a, but how?

I was procrastinating for Hegel class today. Sue me.

Two on my Favorite Things

I am busy, but a quick post. I love Harry Potter and questions of gender/sexuality (though, not as much as other people, and not as much as I love HP) so I can't help commenting about the most recent HP bombshell that Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore was, before his tragic passing, queer (and maybe in death too, up for debate). [As a side discussion-isn't power enough to blind the wise? Why does Jo need to go into sexual desire to explain Dumbledore's oversight? There is power which is not sexual (contends I).]

I should have guessed this, right? But honestly (and embarrassingly) the thought never crossed my mind (cough, heteronormative, cough). It's a good thing, or at the very least, a thing, but it also signifies the shift of consciousness. I am generally quite warm to the incessant detail Rowling provides for her world, but invariably then, no aspect gets ignored. We know everyone's embarrassments, glories, failings and boredoms.

Part of characterness, even the characters in our own lives, is precisely that lack of detail. A sweet old man, who is sweet sans context (and particularly sans sexuality). In particular, literature/mythology has preserved wisdom, qua wise old man, without the need to have contextual bindings. Merlin, Eliyahu, Yishaya, Yirmiya, Sherlock Holmes never needed indulge in the social and sexual pirouettes of common folk; they just were never defined along those lines. I guess we have just gotten past that. Shame, really.

Doe v. United States

I don't have any IR theory background. None. However, this statement by Hu Jintau at the 17th National Congress of the governing Communist Party leads me to question ensuing global politics:

He [Hu Jintao] called the international situation favorable to China, saying a “trend toward a multipolar world is irreversible.” -NYT

This seems to be the language of Russia more than the US or EU (citation needed). I don't actually believe that China wants to be one of those polls; it does not seem to be in their business plan. But why phrase it in competitive language?

It is possible, distinctly possible, that as Communists they feel the need to fire some "empty shots." Apparently Mao told Nixon after the Shanghai Communiqué that China will still have to write bad things about the America in the newspapers so the people will not get confused, and likewise America is free to write bad things about China. "Empty shots" in the words of Mao.

The Epic Tragedy

Last night was Joe Torre's last night at the manager for the New York Yankees. Like the many tragedies of great drama, the Fates have turned, and a great man is now a poor man. And that is precisely the point of great drama, all Good Things pass. Joe is the best of things.

He has managed the Yankees for twelve years, twelve consecutive playoff appearances, six pennants and four world series titles, all the while showing glory to baseball's stars and never taking for his own. He has faced mercurial ownership and roster changes, always able to present the right lineup card at game time. But not last night. He made the wrong call. Wang was too young and could not pitch on three days. Moose could have pitched. That is tragedy. A great man becomes a poor man, weak to fates and furies.

The point of tragedy, the damning truth, is that it is inevitable. Arguably the only other manager in the history of baseball who has the privilege of having his name recited along Torre's is Casey Stengel, who also managed for twelve years won five consecutive World Series titles. He too was forced out after a bad playoff result. There must be parity between comedies and tragedies. Oh how the mighty fall.

Say it ain't so, Joe.

OU on Rabbi Kret

I just wanted to post this piece from the most recent issue of the OU's Jewish Action on Rabbi Kret zt'l.

What was really amazing about R. Kret was that everyone found exactly what they needed in this tiny man. Not all of the article resonated with me, but that's also kind of what is amazing.

Playing hardball, with someone else's good name?

I thought this quote in the NYT was a bit agressive, but of course Apple has been known to say things in the past:

Jennifer Bowcock, an Apple spokeswoman, said that when people went to update their software with their computer through iTunes, a warning appeared on the computer screen, making it clear that any unauthorized modifications to the iPhone software violated the agreement that people entered into when they bought the phone...“If the damage was due to use of an unauthorized software application, voiding their warranty, they should purchase a new iPhone.”

When I googled "Jennifer Bowcock" most of the hits I got were as a Media Relations rep for Cingular. That would make a whole lot of sense, considering how pissed Cingular is liable to be having learned that some 17 year old de facto cracked their exclusivity contract with Apple. She might also serve a dual role for both Cingular and Apple, so I can't be sure. Interesting though.