Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Boo NH

It is nice to live in a country where the outcome of presidential primaries is about as emotionally taxing as an important football game. I can't wait until Super Tuesday--I don't think my work schedule can take much more ballot watching.

Boo, Obama did not win. On the bright side Clinton was leading in the polls in NH until only this week and as late as last week she held a 6 point lead. IA and NH are, in some ways, very different states from the heavy hitters that are going to carry the race (FL, NY, CA). Winning both IA and NH may very well be a red heron herring. Furthermore, I think Obama suffers from being cast as the favorite--it is much easier to advocate for change, rhetorically, when you are perceived the underdog. A solid win in IA and a close loss in NH will invigorate supporters and not let the campaign lull while still demonstrating a much narrower gap than polls had been predicting for months (until last week national polls had Clinton up by 20% as opposed to 7.7% today).

That being said, Clinton probably has NY wrapped up, and I can imagine many voters in FL being wary of a new guy. It would have been nice to carry the momentum from NH, but, so it goes.

1 comment:

ginsbu said...

"Red heron"? Perhaps this or maybe this?